Estonia Current Population Problems

Unemployment:

Unemployment in Estonia has been a pressing issue since their split from the Soviet Union in 1991. The economic shift from collectivization and social dependency to individualism and private enterprise led to serious labor changes. Because employment was once guaranteed by the Soviet government, many who were not highly trained or familiar in the service sectors were left without jobs (Re-shaping of economy).  The unemployment rate in Estonia was 10% in 2003 after improving from a record high of 14.6% in 2000 ("Estonia’s National Action Plan for Social Inclusion" 2004). This number is higher than the average EU unemployment rate. The rates fluctuate between regions, as well, ranging from just 5% in Rapla to 18.2% in Ida-Viru ("Estonia’s National Action Plan for Social Inclusion" 2004). Retraining has become an issue, and despite generally high education levels, finding qualified citizens to fill white-collar roles has proved to be a challenge (“Re-shaping of the Economy”). Men have been hit hardest by unemployment in Estonia, along with the young, disabled, and Russian speaking non-Estonians ("Estonia’s National Action Plan for Social Inclusion" 2004). Lack of employment is causing lower living standards and life expectancy, higher prevalence of crime, and a notably higher amount of suicides among Estonians (“Unemployment and Social Problems”).

High Mortality:

Estonia’s death rate is currently at every 12 per 1000 people (World Population Data Sheet). With one of the highest suicides rates in the EU and some of the lowest life expectancies, mortality in Estonia is a pressing issue (“Mortality”). The 1990’s showed a notable decrease in life expectancy, mostly attributed by unemployment. Men are more prone to early death than women and have a life expectancy of ten years younger than women (data sheet). Infant mortality rate at 3.6 is higher than the European average, suggesting that public health is an issue in Estonia’s issues with mortality (“Mortality” and “World Population Data Sheet”). Estonia is unique in its high amounts of violent death and suicides compared to other developed European nations. Ninety-five percent of all deaths in Estonia are attributed to violent death and accidents, mostly towards men (“Mortality”).  Homicides, cardiovascular disease, and cancer have all increased in the country since 1960, causing a rise in mortality rates.  Estonia has one of the highest inequality rates in mortality, with men dying much sooner and frequently than their female counterparts (“Mortality”).

Social Stratification:

Estonia’s economic restructuring in the 1990’s has led to large discrepancies between the rich and the poor. Social stratification has proved to be a demoralizing aspect of Estonian society. In 2000, the net income for the richest 10% of the country was 14 times higher than that of the poorest 10% (social strat). With their economic success has come problematic social inequality. According to the GIN Index, which measures economic inequality, Estonia was at 37.6 in 1998, compared to other European countries that were valued as low as 25.4 (“Social Stratification”). While a small minority of workers are benefitting from this type of economy, the overall Estonian workforce is suffering from it. About one fourth of the current population is living below the poverty line and the gap between haves and have nots is causing demoralizing effects (“Social Stratification”). With an already dwindling population, social stratification without resolve continues to be a demographic issue for the country.

Fertility

Significant changes in the age composition of the total population of Estonia took place during the second half of the 19th and the first half of the 20th century (Estonica). Estonia’s population had increasing until this time. Due to the counterbalancing effect of the basic ageing processes, the increase in the proportion of the elderly has been unusually small; hence the ageing-related problems became acute in Estonia only in the 1990s (Estonica). A prognosis made in the middle of the 1990s, according to which the year 1999 is estimated to remain the last year of rapid decrease in the fertility rate, provides no real assistance in the solution of social problems (Estonica).

The Estonian government plans to continue formulating strategies -- such as expanding preabortion counseling and subsidizing child-care providers and private day care -- to help improve the total fertility rate, the Journal reports. According to the Journal, Estonia needs a total fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman to maintain its current population (World Population Data Sheet).

Education:

Education currently in Estonia is a very difficult area to research. This difficult is due to some regions of Estonia having incredible education programs, that benefit their students greatly, while others are not treated with the same standard, and an equal education is not shared by all youth (Estonica). Since education is such a large indicator of success, it is arising to be quite a problem for Estonians not receiving the best regional education. The education program was also hit by the lack of financial funds, students mixed abilities, lack of school counseling for students and parents, and many other issues. Though many of these issues could be solved without much effort or financial strain, if they are not tackled early, they could lead to catastrophic results to Estonias education system.

2050: Estonia's Future Problems

Population

As stated before, Estonia is currently on its way to a steady downfall in its population. With a replacement rate of 0, families are not producing enough children to take their place in the world. By 2025, Estonia is projected to not have raised their population by any stretch, and by mid-2050, the population will fall by almost 1 million people (World Population Data Sheet 2010). Estonia as of now, has a large middle age population that makes up 66% of the total. The elderly and children 15 and younger make up only 17% each. Estonians ages 15 and up, need to become educated on the problem of population decline, and take steps to getting their country back to a solid replacement level.

Drug Use

Estonia has had a rapid increase in drug use among its younger population. in 1995 5% of school youth aged 15-16 had tried some elicit drug (UNGASS 2010). By 2000 that same statistic was up to 16% (UNGASS 2010). The last statistic was taken in 2007, with a staggering 30% of school youth having tried elicit drugs. The rate for adults and teenagers have increased at a consistent percent also, but nowhere near the numbers school youth have undergone. The main cause of concern for this increase in drug use, is the increase in AIDS cases due to syringe sharing, and lack of education about its dangers. Coupled with prostitution, Estonia has to quickly jump on these issues if they are to keep AIDS from rising higher and higher each year. By 2050, Estonia needs to create a system to eliminate drugs used through injection, lower the amount of youth doing drugs, and educate its inhabitants to the dangers drugs and AIDs can cause them.

Fertility

Since Estonia's population is diminishing rapidly, fertility itself needs to be addressed as its own category. Estonia currently has a 1.65 replacement ratio, and looking at population fertility trends, this number is not going to increase enough to help sustain population (Statistics Estonia 2008). Abortions are extremely prevalent in Estonia, and most abortions are undergone by married woman to control birth. Since abortion has become one of the top methods of family planning, Estonia is losing the battle at trying to sway people to follow birth control or family planning without the use of surgical techniques or abortions, which could lead to infertility. As stated above in population, Estonia is having dire problems with population growth, and unless some large changes take place, Estonia may collapse in its lack of population.

Loss of Working Age Population

With Estonia's already small population continually aging, the number of working aged citizens will be at an all-time low by 2050. Because average life expectancies in Estonia are lower than the rest of the EU (65 for men and 76 for women), the window of opportunity for people to stay in the work force is correspondingly smaller (Demographic Problems; Estonica 2010). Until the 1990s, Estonia had not set in place any sort of pension or retirement systems for its people. While they have started to address the issues of an aging population, caring for these people will prove to be a daunting task in the next forty years. While the Estonian economy was flourishing during the 1990's, loss of working aged laborers in the years to come will undoubtably cause a speed-bump in their economic progress. They will need to work on increasing life expectancies and improving fertility in order to maintain their GDP and high economic standards in the future.

Negative Affects of Male Unemployment

The pressing issues of unemployment in Estonia today have already been discussed. If Estonia is unable to resolve the high rates of unemployment in the country by 2050, then the trends of suicide, stroke, and violence starting to occur today will undoubtably increase in the future. Estonia currently leads the European Union in numbers of suicides each year, especially among men (Mortality; Estonica 2010).  Estonia also leads in deaths attributed by violence and homicides. In fact, 16.4% of male deaths in 1990 were caused by violent behavior (Mortality; Estonica 2010). Cardiovascular disease among men has been steadily rising since the 1960s, with no indication of slowing down. These trends are assumed to be attributed by the high unemployment rate for Estonian males. Due to the stress of not finding work, heath issues and violent behavior are becoming increasingly prevalent. Unless the unemployment rates are addressed by the government, Estonia will be facing this pressing issues of male mortality well until 2050.

 

Millennium Development Goals

Statistics taken from the United Nations Statistics Division - Estonia

Estonia is well on its way to achieving many of the UN’s Millennium Development Goals. According to the World Health Organization, the new members of the European Union, including Estonia, “have either already achieved all the MDGs or are likely to achieve more than 80% of them (“Mixed progress towards the Millennium Development Goals in the European Union” WHO, 2007). Their new approaches to health care and education after splitting with the Soviet Union have been extremely successful. An address given by Estonia’s foreign minister stressed that Estonia’s “well-focused resources will help to increase educational and health care opportunities for children, as well as the availability of clean drinking water. A rise in education would, in turn, help with awareness of serious diseases such as malaria, tuberculosis, and AIDS” (Foreign Minister Paet: People in Conflict Zones Need More Aid” 2010).  Estonia is currently making great efforts to becoming an official developed nation in the eyes of the European Union.

Goal 1

Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger.

Through the Millennium Development Goals, Estonia is striving to tackle two apparent target goals in relation to poverty and hunger. The first target is to halve the proportion of people living off less than one dollar a day throughout their population. According to the United Nations Statistics Division, Estonia has had a constant 2% of their population that falls into the extreme poverty rate from 1993 to 2003. The second target was to halve between 1990 and 2015 the proportion of people who suffer from hunger. In 1994 9% of Estonia’s population suffered from hunger. By 2002 only 3% of the population was affected by hunger from poverty. Since only 2% of Estonia’s 1.34 million people are affected by extreme poverty, halving the current levels should not be a problem by 2015. Since Estonia is a market-based economy, its levels of economic prosperity and hardship are based within its population’s decisions. Estonia’s increasing electronic and telecommunication sectors will give way to a much more advanced market of exports, with products like Skype and increased tourism throughout the country. Utilizing their current technological breakthroughs, Estonia could keep it population out of poverty, and allow its population to live fruitfully for years to come.

Goal 2

Achieve universal primary education

Estonia’s second goal involves making sure that boys and girls everywhere are completing primary schooling. Estonia has a very literate population of 99.8% of both boys and girls. In 1999 Estonia recored 95.6% of its children to be enrolled into primary education. From 1999 to 2001 the enrollment ratio rose to 96.7% to be Estonia’s record highest education enrollment. Only 3 years later enrollment fell once again to 94.1%, which is below the 1999 baseline. Since Estonia’s population is declining, and a lack of fertility has arose, this trend is most likely due to population problems rather than education losing its focus within Estonia. Looking at Estonia’s completion rate of primary education for both male and female students, we see an increasing amount of students finishing primary education than before. Statistics from the United Nations Statistics Division recorded a cumulative change of 12.40% (101.5) of students completing primary education, up from the value of 90.3 in 1999. Estonia uses a multiple tier education system to prepare its students, and allow them to pursue paths in multiple higher education fields by introducing vocational skills into the classroom.

Goal 3

Promote Gender Equality and Empower Women

The target of this goal is to eliminate gender disparity in primary and secondary education by 2005, and to all levels of education by 2015. Estonia has been making extremely slow progress towards correcting its inequality since the millennium development goals were announced and today women only feel about 71% as empowered as men (Estonian Gender Gap Report 2009). With this lack of empowerment coupled with a lack of life opportunity, women are not able to help promote educational participation, health changes, and political empowerment within their own country. By addressing and changing the gender inequality, women can have a say in helping to promote Estonia's MDG, and create a much more diverse and fair population. These statistics are based on woman in higher education and in the work force, therefore showing Estonia has made little to no changes to stop gender inequality in any areas. According to Estonia’s United Nations Statistics division, women are becoming increasingly evident within education, and the study also revealed that Estonian women are 63 percent more likely than men to enroll in post-secondary education. Looking at both gender inequality, Estonia is making small strides to incorporate women into most of the education process, but on the front of empowerment Estonia has a long way to go if they are ever going to reach their goal by 2015.

Goal 4

Reduce Child Mortality

As of 2004 Estonia has an infant mortality rate of 8 deaths per 1000 births. In 1995 the child mortality rate was at its highest at 19 children under 5 dying per 1000 births. The target goal of Estonia’s child mortality rate is 2/3 lower than the 1990 rate of 16. As of 2004, Estonia has established their current goal, and with the rise in medical technology, Estonia should have no trouble keeping their child mortality rate below their goal limit. Infant mortality also has met the goal of 2/3 in 2010 by reducing the infant mortality rate to a mere 7.32 births per 1000 (CIA World Factbook 2010). Estonia has an extended immunization plan for children entering the education system; therefore they do not have any current concerns with immunization or mortality rates.

Goal 5

Improve Maternal Health

Estonia has slowly and steadily been increasing their maternal health capabilities by raising the percentage of births advised by a medical professional and prenatal care education.  In 1992 the amount of births advised by a medical profession was 99.1%, which has increased to a mere 99.8%.  Although the medical care for women is rising, maternal mortality as been on the rise since initial statistics were taken in 1990. Currently maternal mortality is at 63 women per 100,000 births, up from the initial 41 in 1990.  Though there was a decrease in maternal mortality from the 1995 statistic of 80 maternal deaths, Estonia has to crack down on maternal mortality if they wish to meet their current goal. Current strides in infant mortality coupled with maternal mortality could help produce a much-needed spark in population growth by 2015.

Goal 6

Combat AIDS/HIV and Tuberculosis

The main UN goal that Estonia is most likely not to achieve is the fight against HIV/AIDS. The percentage of males infected with HIV in 2009 was 2.0% in comparison to most other European countries that fall well below 1% (World Population Data Sheet 2010). After 2000, a large increase in prevalence of the infection occurred in Estonia, with 9,900 people living with AIDs in 2010 (CIA World Factbook 2010). The illness is mostly spread through sharing infected syringes through drug use. While Estonia is not projected to meet the UN goal on HIV by 2015, they have made large efforts in improving their rates of infection. The “Anti-Aids” campaign was launched in 1992, and the “National Action Plan for HIV/AIDS” has been prevalent since 1997 (UNGASS narrative report, Estonia 2009).  The government is hoping such programs will decrease their high rate of AIDS in comparison to the rest of the EU.

Tuberculosis is another major disease impacting Estonians, and like AIDs/HIV has become a predominate concern. When measured at the beginning of 1990, only 4.3 people died per 100,000 people in Estonia. By 2000, that statistic doubled to over 9.6. The prevalence of TB also increased from 1990 to 2000 by almost 35%. Although TB spread quickly for 1990 to 2000, it only took 4 years for Estonia to reduce both the prevalence of the disease, and of all cases curable. If the current trends continue as they have for the past 10 years, Estonia will undoubtedly eliminate the threat of TB from its population, and begin to focus more effort to finding the death rate in half. Also, Estonia managed to raise the treatment success of the disease to 69.7% a cure for AIDS.

Goal 7

Ensure Environmental Sustainability

Estonia has made significant gains in the goal of sustaining their environment. Largely independent through their own oil shares and natural resources, they have recognized the need to sustain such resources. In 1995, the Act on Sustainable Development was approved, marking plans to further sustain their chemical, energy, transport, and agricultural sectors. They’ve also been active with the Baltic Agenda 21 program, a regional sustainable development operation, since 1998 (Sustainable Development in Estonia 2005). Estonia currently has a large reserve of natural resources, including oil shale, phosphorus, limestone, and oil clay (Bureau of European and Eurasian Affairs 2010). With these natural resources, Estonia has created underwater electric lines to provide electricity to its surrounding areas. These power lines provide a much-needed system of electricity and life support to outskirt areas around Estonia, but they come at a cost. The natural resources needed to fuel much of the electricity throughout Estonia, comes from the burning of oil shale, which releases harmful gases into the environment.  In the 1990’s, CO2 emissions skyrocketed to a peak point of 38,110 metric tons. Slowly but surely, Estonia reduced this rate to about half by 2004. Also, with the creation of new technologies, Ozone-Depleting Substances being released into the atmosphere have been controlled to almost eliminated numbers.

The second target of the environmental sustainability involves the implementation of sanitation facilities, and sanitary water sources. Estonia currently has no problems with sanitation and clean water availability, so they would not have any problems with this goal by 2015.

Goal 8

Develop a global partnership for development

Estonia has separated their final goal into three categories. The first target involves developing a system that deals with the debt problems of developing countries through national and international measures, so as to ensure debt sustainability. Estonia has given about 1% of their export goods and services to help the sustainment of debt programs within developing countries. Along with the strides of debt improvements, Estonia has also taken the youth population into consideration with employment help. According to the United Nations Statistics division, there are currently 2.4 youth (15-24 years old) to every 1 adult (25 and older) unemployed in the developing worlds. By motivating and creating productive work for youth, we can help create and promote economic changes in specific developing countries, and provide a brighter future for young people than previously offered by their country. Lastly, the final target involves making technology, communication, and information readily available with private sectors, so as to help promote technological advancement throughout the world. Estonia is currently the creator and headquarters for free web-based phone calls. This technology has made a huge impact on the world currently, allowing people to video or audio chat anywhere in the world. By spreading the power of technology both throughout Estonia, and the world, Estonia could help jump-start the rest of the world to follow suit in the quest to make the world a better place.