Saturday, November 13, 2010

Demographic Analysis








Estonia is a relatively small country, even by European standards. Their population of 1.3 million resides in a state about the size of Vermont and New Hampshire combined (World Population Data Sheet). While the country has “one of the highest per capita income levels in Eastern Europe,” demographic problems are projected to adversely affect the economy and the population (“Estonia” 2010). The country is economically successful as a whole, but Estonia’s low fertility rates, high mortality, and increasing social stratification are becoming largely pressing issues for the nation (“Demographic Problems” 2010).
Of the 1.3 million citizens, about 18% of the population comes from those aged 65 and older. Those under 15 only account for about 15% of the nation and are expected to decrease more over the next thirty to fifty years (World Population Data Sheet 2010). Currently the birth rate and death rate are equal at 12 births and deaths per 1,000, but the fertility and mortality rates are more indicative of Estonia’s current demographic trends.  The mortality rate is relatively high for Europe at 3.6 percent, with the fertility rate well below replacement level at 1.6, implying a percentage increase in total population of only .9. Ultimately, this trend will lead to an aging and decreasing population in years to come. The country is expecting a 1.2 million total population by 2050 (World Population Data Sheet). 
Life expectancy in Estonia is lower than its Western European counterparts, especially for men. While women are living to a health 79 years, the gender gap is about ten years, with male life expectancy at 69 years—five years less than the average for other economically developed nations (Demographic Situation). The large discrepancy between gendered life expectancy and the large percentages of early male death are current issues facing Estonia. The country is relatively urban, with 69% of people living in urban towns or cities (Demographic Situation). This gives the majority of the population access to skilled doctors and modern health technologies, allowing for above average health and nutrition. Over 90% of the population had vaccinations against measles, clean drinking water sources, and improved sanitary facilities as of 2007. As a result, the percentage of low birth weight babies in Estonia is among the lowest in the EU. AS of 2006, 5% of the total GDP was expended toward health services (WHO). Only 2.6% of the population lives with AIDS/HIV, but with such a small population size, these numbers are still an indicator of concern.

Estonia’s political and economic shifts from publicly run to privatization and urbanization have caused the economy to flourish. Their large shares of oil have allowed them to be 90% independent with their energy resources (“Estonia”). Their main trading partners include Germany, Finland, and Sweden, and much of their economic output depends on these countries. The shift to privatization, however, has left many citizens unemployed. The ramifications of this will become evident in our sections on unemployment.